The Rams were the least aggressive team in the NFL on fourth downs from 2017-2024, according to win probability analytics created by Ben Baldwin.
During that time, when going for it rather than kicking or punting would raise the Rams' win probability by at least 1.0% in games where they had at least a 20% win probability, they chose to do so less than 30% of the time. That ranked last in the NFL. This season, they've chosen to go for it in that context just under 60% of the time, which ranks 13th in the NFL and first for the Rams in a single season under head coach Sean McVay.
Baldwin is not the only source to recognize McVay's growth as a fourth-down decision-maker. Next Gen Stats has recommended the Rams go for it on fourth down 21 times this season based on win probabilities. They've done so on 18 of them, which is the team's highest "optimal go rate" (85.7%) since McVay took over and the fourth-highest in the NFL this season.
These models have different ways of calculating the best decision to make on a given fourth down based on factors such as field position, score differential, game conditions and more, compared to recent historical data. Yet both make it clear that McVay's thought process on fourth downs has become more aggressive this season, and it's been in the team's best interest. The question is, why now?
McVay said on Monday that flow of the game and anticipating the scoring trajectory play a big role in making those decisions.
"It has evolved because I think you take the information and you use analytics," McVay said. "You look at the rest of the league and you don't want to be behind the curve. Ultimately it is about, how do you win the football game? The only way to do that is to be able to score more points. You're seeing a lot more aggressiveness from teams, particularly when they cross midfield."
The raw numbers tell the same story as the analytics-driven ones: McVay is going for it more than ever. Los Angeles has gone for it on 32.5% of their total fourth downs including the postseason, according to Next Gen Stats. Prior to this year, the Rams' season-high under McVay occurred last year (21.6%), and that go-rate has risen nearly every season of McVay's tenure.
It's no coincidence that the Rams have become significantly bolder over the past two seasons. Ahead of 2024, L.A. hired John Streicher as their game management coordinator. He left for New England before the 2025 season, and the Rams replaced him with Dan Shamash, known as "Smash" around the Rams' facility.
"Smash has done an excellent job of helping facilitate good decisions," McVay said. "I'll be the first to admit when I make mistakes and if I would do it differently.
"I haven't done a great job, particularly with some of the timeout usage or things like that. I think we've improved. The fourth down stuff, I think it's served us well over the years, or over this particular season, and we'll continue to lean into that."
Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur and Shamash worked together for a few years with the Jets, and LaFleur described him as "a really bright dude" who studies the league's tendencies extensively. He works with the Rams' analytics department along with chief of Staff Carter Crutchfield to stay up-to-date and formulate game management plans.
They have their own fourth-down models, just like Baldwin and Next Gen Stats, that help inform McVay of the call that gives them the best chance to win in a given situation. He often trusts that evaluation, but no number can replace or overpower a gut feeling. When McVay has one, he runs with it.
"I don't think anything's careless, I think he's just been aggressive," LaFleur said of McVay. "It's trusting the players. He just trusts our guys, I'm talking about Sean, and rightfully so. They gave us every reason to trust them."
In the Rams' wild-card win against the Panthers, both sides of the fourth down decision coin presented themselves for Los Angeles.
With less than two minutes remaining in the first half, McVay chose to go for it on 4th-and-3 from the Carolina 19. A field goal would have given Los Angeles a 20-7 lead that they could have potentially taken into the second half, when they were set to receive the ball first. Quarterback Matthew Stafford's pass was batted away, and the conversion failed. Carolina then went 81 yards in 47 seconds to make it a three-point game at the half instead.
"I thought it offered an opportunity for us to really be able to open that game up, especially knowing you were getting the ball coming out of the half," McVay said. "That wasn't a great situation in terms of how it unfolded for us, but I don't necessarily regret the decision."
Down by four early in the fourth quarter, the Rams faced a 4th-and-1 from the Carolina 30. Instead of attempting a long field goal to pull within one, McVay chose to trust his offense, giving it to running back Kyren Williams up the gut for the conversion. Williams found pay dirt five plays later, and the Rams took a 27-24 lead that they likely couldn't have won the game without.
Even after a failed fourth down cost the Rams their chance to break the game open, McVay didn't shy away from making the same decision in crunch time. Those choices are driven by a sound process, not by the most recent results.
"I think what you want to do is you want to make sure that you're not making emotional decisions," McVay said. "You're using your preparation. You're staying true to that while also considering the flow of the game, the weather and some of the wind."
When facing high-scoring offenses who often go for it on fourth down, McVay has opted to match that aggressive approach, and the players seem to appreciate that show of faith. When the Rams converted all three of their fourth-down attempts against the Lions in Week 15, Stafford was "excited" to be on the field in those situations.
"Playing a good offense like Detroit has, you've got to stay with them," Stafford said. "... Those fourth downs were big."
On Sunday, the Rams will travel to Chicago for the divisional round to face a Bears team that chose to go for it six times in their wild-card victory last week. They didn't punt once. Under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, Chicago's "optimal go rate" of 82.6% ranked 10th in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats, and it had the ninth-highest scoring offense in the regular season.
When asked if that type of opponent will factor into the Rams' fourth-down calls this weekend, McVay's answer was simple.
"It does, yeah. All those things go into it."
Los Angeles' divisional round matchup against the Bears is shaping up to be an aggressive battle between two of the league's most innovative offenses.
