Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford completed some spectacular passes this season. Unsurprisingly, wide receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams were on the receiving end of the least probable ones. Next Gen Stats measures completion probability using an analytical model that factors in quarterback speed at the throw, pass distance, receiver separation and more.

Here are the five most least probable completions of the Rams' 2025 season based on Next Gen Stats' completion probability model.

5) 31-yard completion to Nacua against the Colts in Week 4: 26.0%

Nacua beat cornerback Xavien Howard on a double move down the sideline, converting a 3rd-and-5 that took the Rams into the red zone. The pass traveled 44.9 yards in the air and Nacua had just 0.6 yards of separation when he made the catch.

Nacua ended the game with 13 receptions for 170 yards and a touchdown. Howard retired three days later.

4) 21-yard completion to Nacua against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game: 25.6%

In the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game in Seattle, Nacua ran a deep dig and Stafford threaded the needle between three defenders. He released the ball before Nacua was even out of his break, and the wideout had just 0.8 yards of separation when the ball was thrown and 1.2 yards when it arrived. The throw hit him in stride and resulted in a big gain into Seattle territory.

3) Two-yard, one-handed touchdown catch by Nacua against the Cardinals in Week 18: 25.0%

With the game tied at six and the first half nearing a close, the Rams faced a fourth-and-goal from the two-yard line. Stafford threw a back-shoulder fade, trusting that Nacua would come down with it. He did just that with one hand, despite having just 0.8 yards of separation from his defender at the catch point.

2) One-yard touchdown catch by Adams against Jacksonville in Week 7: 23.1%

In the fourth quarter of a blowout win over Jacksonville, Adams iced it with a classic goal-line fade. Even though cornerback Montaric Brown had outside leverage at the snap, Adams won to the edge. When Stafford lofted the pass, it was a bit short of Adams' route and he elevated over Brown to snatch the touchdown with just 0.2 yards of separation.

Even though it was just a one-yard gain, the pass traveled 25.3 yards in the air.

1) Eight-yard completion to Adams against Philadelphia in Week 3: 19.3%

Up against First Team All-Pro cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, Adams tried to separate at the top of his curl route, but Mitchell stuck to him. When Stafford's missile reached Adams, he had created just 0.7 yards of separation from Mitchell, who lunged toward the ball, but Adams boxed him out and hauled it in.

It may not have been flashy, but it was the Rams' most improbable completion of the year because of the narrow window of separation and contact throughout the route.