No one does it better on short weeks – especially when it comes to home back-to-backs.
In each of the past two seasons, defending home turf twice in a span of five days has changed the course of the Los Angeles Rams season.
In 2023, coming back from Baltimore after an overtime defeat at 6-7, LA buckled down and beat the Commanders and Saints on their way to four straight wins to earn a playoff spot.
Then again last season, in the depths of 1-4, we knew they'd have to rally coming out of the bye with home dates against the Raiders and Vikings. The Rams won them both and set a course for a return trip to the postseason.
Now, having prevailed over previously undefeated Indianapolis, division play arrives – rivalry style.
Thursday's winner will seize control of the NFC West at 4-1.
Bumps and Bruises
This matchup is full of mystery in terms of availability. From the opposing quarterback to many of his top targets, it's unclear which version of the 49ers the Rams will see come Thursday night.
Camryn Irwin captained this week's Between the Horns, as we talked through takeaways from beating the Colts and what LA might see from San Francisco.
Fool's Gold
With the 49ers passing game injured and in flux, all eyes will be on Christian McCaffrey. He and the Niners haven't scored a rushing touchdown so far. In fact, they're hardly recognizable, ranking 29th in the NFL in rushing DVOA.
But that's fool's gold. It's only a matter of time until it clicks for a Kyle Shanahan run game. Plus, McCaffrey's off to the best start of his career as a pass-catcher.
Tyler Davis and his running mates have kept two of the league's best backs in check the last couple weeks – Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.
The gauntlet continues with McCaffrey… and then Derrick Henry.
Les is More
Rams GM Les Snead pinched hit for Sean McVay on the coach's show, as he often does on short weeks.
We discussed Puka Nacua's torrid start as well as all the things he's doing without the ball in his hands.
"There's an element of Larry Csonka there," Snead said of Nacua's playstyle, likening LA's newest 24-year-old American Gladiator to the Dolphins Hall of Fame fullback.
In all four games so far, opponents have committed their top corner to Davante Adams. At what point might Nacua's record-setting pace command more attention? After all, he's the only player in NFL history to rack up 500 receiving yards through four games twice in his career.
The problem is, Nacua's willingness to mix it up in the running game and scratch up his facemask makes it difficult to assign a Derek Stingley Jr. or Quinyon Mitchell to him for a full day.
Of note this week, San Francisco has been playing Upton Stout in the slot. The 100th overall selection in this year's draft stands only 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds and is grading out as the 82nd-rated corner (out of 102) in the NFL. On paper, that's advantage Rams.
News & Notes
On a short week, let's rip through our shortlist of research nuggets that matter.
The Rams have won three in a row against their fiercest rival, their longest winning streak since taking six straight from 1999-2001. The disclaimer here: LA trailed going to the fourth quarter of all three.
According to ESPN, the 49ers have generated pressure on only 18.5% of opponent drop-backs, the lowest rate in the NFL. Without Nick Bosa (out for season with a torn ACL), they hardly bothered Trevor Lawrence in a home loss to the Jags last Sunday. Stafford has been elite when kept clean, and is coming off a heater – on the field and on the mic.
As of this writing, we're uncertain about the game status of his counterpart, Brock Purdy. No longer the best bargain in professional sports, the Niners quarterback has thrown multiple interceptions in both games he's played this season and 3 straight games dating back last season. Kam Curl got in the pick column last week; let's see if it's finally Quentin Lake's turn in prime time, or perhaps Emmanuel Forbes Jr.?
The deluge of Nacua stats has been staggering. I'm resisting the urge to inundate you with more in this column. But it's worth watching that with eight more receptions on Thursday, the third-year pro would eclipse Cooper Kupp (2022, 49) for the most receptions through the first five contests of a season in NFL history.
Alright, one more: Nacua has already surpassed Hall of Famer Isaac Bruce for most catches by a Ram through three seasons. And yes, I'm aware that he's only four games into his third season and missed six games (and parts of others) last year due to injury/rest/ejection. It's dumbfounding.
Meantime, Kyren Williams is fast approaching 3,000 career rushing yards. Just 115 shy of that milestone, it would be nice to see him dominate and race right through that mark at home against a rival. He's produced at least 100 scrimmage yards in all three career games versus the Niners.
Did you know the Rams have the third-most efficient running game in the league? The Nacua 45-yard touchdown was a shot in the arm, but still. As much as the offensive line has struggled in pass protection, let's give them their flowers for keeping LA on track on the ground.
One month in, Stafford is leading the NFL in deep passing and passing under duress, according to NextGen Stats. It's too early for conversations about individual awards, but if he's lights out on Thursday, I'm going to start thinking some thoughts.
It was a nice bounce-back performance for the field goal unit last Sunday, running a clean operation for Joshua Karty. That allows us to shine the spotlight once again on his other main responsibility. Of Karty's 20 kickoffs, 11 have resulted in starting field position at or inside the 20. No other kicker has done that more than 6 times so far this season, per Wyatt Miller. Whereas the Rams are second-best (behind Carolina) at pinning kick returners deep, the 49ers are the worst at it, per NFL Research.
I found this odd, but true: This is only the third time the 49ers have had a winning record through four games under Shanahan.
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Watching the West
As the Rams kick off Week 5, there's a three-way tie for first place atop the division at 3-1. Of the five collective losses between the four teams, three have been head-to-head. There continues to be a very viable case to be made that the Rams are defending their crown in the toughest division in football.
San Francisco is about to start a stretch of four road games in five weeks. Here's the upcoming schedule for the 49ers, and yet another reason why a win over San Francisco in prime time could be so consequential: At Tampa next, then home to Atlanta in Week 7. Every rivalry game against them matters, but this one is about as high leverage as an early October contest can possibly be.
Aside from our showdown at SoFi Stadium Thursday, the Seahawks and Cardinals will both be home this Sunday and well-rested after playing TNF last week. Seattle welcomes Tampa Bay in a matchup of 3-1 NFC contenders. Arizona (2-2) will look to reset its season against the lowly Titans (0-4) .
