When the Rams took the field with just under two minutes remaining in a tie game against the Colts, their win probability was around 60%, according to nflverse data. That model clearly didn't factor in quarterback Matthew Stafford's ice-cold veins, or else it would have been north of 90%.
Stafford dropped back from the Rams' 12-yard line and delivered what was essentially a 25-yard handoff wide receiver Tutu Atwell. After he made his defender fall early in his corner route, Atwell caught the perfectly placed pass in-stride and took it to the house, giving the Rams a 27-20 lead.
Atwell was far from the first read on that play. In fact, Stafford said he'd never even thrown to that route on that play call before in his time as a Ram. But, being the poised passer that he is, Stafford found the open man while going through his progressions and delivered a strike.
"(Throwing to Atwell) was kind of like the last thought in my head jogging out on the field when we called the play," Stafford said. "But everybody's got to be alive and Tutu did a hell of a job winning his route and then finishing the thing off."
That 88-yard touchdown served as Stafford's 50th career game-winning drive, the most among active players and the fifth-most all-time.
When the Rams really need to make a play in crunch time, that's when Stafford's at his best, his calm confidence radiating through the huddle to the rest of the team. It's no coincidence that he ranks top two in the NFL in fourth-quarter passing yards, touchdowns, yards per play, expected points added (EPA) and passer rating, and is near the top in a whole host of other statistics through four weeks.
"I feel like I've always liked those moments," Stafford said. "I'd rather have the ball or be at bat than be sitting on the sideline watching somebody else do it. I'd rather put myself out there and if I fail, I fail, but I'd rather it be me."
Two of those clutch opportunities arose late in last Sunday's comeback victory over the Colts, and Stafford took advantage of both. "He played his best in the most important moments," said head coach Sean McVay.
Less than two football minutes prior to the game-winner, Stafford faced a 4th-and-2 at the nine-yard line after marching down the field. With the game on the line, of course he trusted the league leader in nearly every receiving stat, wide receiver Puka Nacua. He hit the Samoan superstar on a quick in-cut beyond the sticks, who then barreled into the end zone for a touchdown. The throw was as decisive and crisp and the catch and run that followed, as the NFL's hottest duo tied it at 20.
Nacua has spent each of his first three NFL seasons playing with Stafford, so he's used to the comforting effect his quarterback has on the team at critical junctures. But it still helps the 24-year-old receiver reach peak effectiveness, especially when his emotions are running high.
"That steadiness that he has I think (impacts) me tracking the ball and maybe slows my heart rate down a little bit so I can see it spin a couple extra times," Nacua said. "It definitely does have a huge impact."
Meanwhile, this is wide receiver Davante Adams' 12th NFL season, and he's caught passes from 14 different quarterbacks. Out of all those passers, Adams said that Stafford is the "coolest" quarterback he's ever been around.
"You forget almost how intense the situation is because of how lax he is, in a good way," Adams said. "You never wanna have somebody just run around with they head on fire and being emotional, super high, and then get low. Like I said, he's just even-keeled all the time and that kind of just permeates throughout the rest of the team, and the offense definitely."
Even on a self-described off-day in Week 3 against the Eagles, Stafford locked in at the end to lead what would have been a game-winning drive, but the go-ahead field goal attempt was blocked.
As long as Stafford has the ball in his hands, he's in control, and that's where his composure comes from. When it matters most, he's always felt more comfortable being in the figurative hot seat compared to the literal heated one on the sideline, but he's also grown more comfortable in those situations throughout his career.
On Tuesday, Stafford said he's never really thought about how he stays so calm in the clutch, because he's always locked in on the task at hand. He's putting all the pieces together in his head, visualizing the play and making sure his guys are in the right spots. At this point in his career, it's almost second-nature.
"He's been there more than probably anyone in this league right now," said offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. "... There's just something about those special players when it comes down to the fourth quarter and you have to go get a score, whether it's three or seven or what have you, you just know he's going to deliver."
Only after the plays are made and drive is done will Stafford let his emotions take over.
As Atwell streaked toward the goal line on Sunday, Stafford followed suit with surprising speed, his arms outstretched, to celebrate with his teammates. He was screaming "wild stuff" that would need to be edited out of his Mic'd Up episode, Stafford said postgame. Among them was, "I'm a f** dawg."
During the Rams' first game against the 49ers in 2024, last-minute heroics from Stafford set them up to tie it and then win as time expired. Just like last week, it was Atwell on the receiving end of a downfield shot from Stafford that gave L.A. that chance. It will take on San Francisco for the first time this season on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.
No team wants to go down to the wire, especially against a division rival, but having one of the best late-game performers in NFL history commanding the offense means the Rams are often on the winning side when it comes to that.
"It never gets old," LaFleur said. "I'll never personally take it for granted watching what he does for this offense and how he leads in those moments."
