Three outcomes are possible this weekend, and only one is undesirable.
The Chicago Bears are certainly capable of eliminating the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night at Soldier Field. They've been great at home; they've been beyond clutch; they boast an opportunistic defense, a dynamic young quarterback, and a team-of-destiny vibe.
However, if the Rams can find a way to advance, that will set up an NFC West rematch for the conference championship. Wouldn't that be appropriate for the best division in football?
The 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams have three of the final four seats at the table. Combined, they went 40-7 (.851) in games not played against each other.
A year ago, you'll recall the Washington Commanders went to Detroit and upset the top-seeded Lions on a Saturday night, and so we slept on the opportunity to host the NFC Championship. Ultimately, the Rams fell 13 yards short against the Eagles.
Much like last January in Philadelphia, the Rams will take part in the second NFC divisional round game. Either the Seahawks will end the Niners hopes of hosting the Super Bowl or the top seed will be one-and-done once more. Come Sunday, the Rams will be playing for the right to avenge their epic defeat in Seattle or to host San Francisco in another NFC Championship in Inglewood, this time for the right to go to Levi's Stadium for Super Bowl LX.
Either prospect will be tantalizing.
The Rams will land in Chicago, check into their hotel, and watch their divisional rivals duke it out.
Thrive and Advance
For the better part of three months, the Rams were the top performing team in the NFL.
Admittedly, since Kobie Turner intercepted Sam Darnold in the fourth quarter at Lumen Field, it hasn't looked the same.
"Are we looking for consistent execution for a full 60 [minutes]? No doubt about it," head coach Sean McVay said, reflecting on his team's performance in Carolina. "We're going to continue to strive for that. Maybe this week is the week."
I appreciated that Matthew Stafford was quick to point out his team went on the road and put 34 points on the Panthers – highest scoring output of Wild Card weekend! And that's despite failing on a fourth down at the Carolina 19-yard line in the second quarter. And dropping a touchdown going into the half. And the quarterback injuring his finger, going 1-for-13 and 3-for-19 with a pick and a sack in the middle portion of that win.
"Obviously, we want to go out there and play as clean and precise of football as we possibly can. Sometimes that doesn't happen throughout the game," Stafford said this week. "I love that our team doesn't really ride those ebbs and flows. We just stay steady and understand that it's next drive, next play, whatever it is. That's served us really well, and I think it will moving forward."
Style points are irrelevant, but style of play matters. Can the Rams get their swagger back as soon as this Sunday (if they ever lost it)? And what does that look like against a Bears team coming off the emotional high of winning a playoff game for the first time in 15 years, with another miraculous comeback against their biggest rival?
From the trenches to the temperature, we tackled it all on a new Between the Horns with D'Marco Farr and Maurice Jones-Drew.
First to Forty Wins
This week, we celebrated the 10-year anniversary of the Rams' return to Los Angeles as well as the nine-year anniversary of hiring the winningest coach in franchise history.
Within moments, McVay was suddenly tied for the second-longest tenure in the NFL, too.
After Mike Tomlin resigned after nearly two decades as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, only Andy Reid has been at his post longer than the still-not-40-year-old leader of the Rams.
Under his leadership, the Rams are about to play their 15th postseason contest, and each of those has been against a unique opponent. Win Sunday, and they'll finally double-back to either San Francisco or Seattle, both opponents that McVay's Rams have defeated in the postseason (2021 and 2019, respectively).
Let's keep going on the coaches.
Longtime Rams fans know this is the first playoff meeting with Chicago since the 1985 NFC Championship. That game was played on January 12, 1986, shortly before the birth of both this year's head coaches.
Additionally, the Rams have lost four straight games at Soldier Field since defeating the Bears there in November 2003. That fall, a senior quarterback at Marist School named McVay was on his way to a state championship as well as earning Georgia Player of the Year honors over Calvin Johnson.
As for Ben Johnson, from the Rams encounters with the Lions, we've always been aware that he's the real deal. NFL Research reports that he's joined McVay as one of only three NFL coaches to take over a team ranked last in total offense the year prior and lead them to the playoffs in his first season (Jim Fassel is the other, with the 1997 New York Giants).
Second (City) to None
The quarterback matchup has parallels as well, ranging from their top-pick status to their clutch genes.
Let's touch on Matthew Stafford, first, then get into a profile on Caleb Williams.
The long-time member of the NFC North has made 22 career starts against the Bears. The first 20 of those came with the Lions, and coincidentally his Rams debut in 2021 was a home win over the Bears. Due to the lack of postseason success for both Detroit and Chicago in this generation, perhaps it's not surprising that this will be his first career postseason start against the Bears.
Sunday marks the largest age difference between former No. 1 overall selections, according to league research. Stafford is 5,033 days (or 13 years, 284 days) older than his counterpart.
He and Williams each threw game-winning touchdowns below the two-minute warning last Saturday, authoring two of the most thrilling fourth quarters in Wild Card history. And early in his career, the former USC Trojan has demonstrated Stafford-like steadiness, leading the NFL with six fourth-quarter comebacks this season (including his most recent win over the Packers). Stafford has 54 career game-winning drives, fifth-most in NFL history including playoffs, and six have come against the Bears, more than any other opponent in his career.
More on how resilient Williams and the Bears have been at the end of this column, but I wanted to jot down a few words about how intriguing the study of Williams has been this week.
At the end of his second pro season, I might summarize the Bears quarterback this way: He doesn't throw a very high percentage of passes to either team.
According to Next Gen Stats, Williams had the lowest completion percentage (58.1 percent) among qualified passers despite playing in an offense that affords him receivers with the highest average separation (3.8 yards). In Johnson's quarterback-friendly offense, Williams throws into tight windows at the lowest rate (10.6 percent) in the NFL, and thus seldom commits turnovers – his 1.2 interception percentage through two seasons is the lowest of all-time! Last weekend, Green Bay became the first defense all season to intercept Williams multiple times.
With arctic conditions expected Sunday night, it remains to be seen what relevance any of these passing stats have on the game we're about to witness. One other paradox bears monitoring and will almost certainly determine which team moves on to the NFC Championship, though. Williams' average time to throw this season was 3.2 seconds, the third-longest of the NGS era! Despite hanging on to the football until the bitter end, he somehow cut his sack rate from 10.8 percent in 2024 to 4.1 percent in 2025.
Among the components that made that possible, I'd list his vastly improved offensive system combined with a functioning offensive line. Additionally, part of what is admirable about his approach to the position is his ability to earn an incompletion and play the next down. Still, it takes a generational talent to stretch the game to its boundaries like he's done this season, and the challenge for the Rams is to regress Williams and the Bears in a very mean way.
Does Defense Win Championships?
And if so, are the Bears and Rams short-timers?
Chicago profiles as a below-average defensive team by just about every measure. In terms of defensive DVOA, they were 25th overall this season – 24th and 28th in the NFL against the rush and pass, respectively.
And yet, they led the NFL with 33 takeaways and 23 interceptions! That they beat the Packers without the benefit of a takeaway is all the more dumbfounding, as it's normally how they subsist. Last Saturday was Chicago's first win without creating a takeaway all season as well as the Bears' first victory without having an edge in turnover margin. If not
for the weather, you'd expect the Rams to put up a big number on this Chicago defense.
As for LA, the defense has gone from elite through Thanksgiving to pedestrian since, and particularly gettable as of late.
From Week 13 forward, the Rams defensive EPA is -18.83, 24th in the league and just slightly ahead of the Bears. Take out their wins over the lowly, one-dimensional Arizona Cardinals and defensive EPA falls to -29.71. Something needs to change for the Rams to be championship-worthy, and I believe they're one game plan away. By way of caution, however, the Bears had 11 explosive passes in the second half versus the Packers, as measured by PFF.
What's Cooler Than Being Cool?
At least one former Green Bay Packer won't be deterred by Sunday's conditions. "I've never worn sleeves in a game in my career," Davante Adams reminded us this week.
In other receiver news, however good you think Puka Nacua is, you're still probably underrating him.
This game features two of the top three pass-catchers in the league in terms of yards per route run this season.
The Bears got some side eye for taking Coleston Loveland 10th overall, ahead of Tyler Warren, but he's proved them right. The rookie tight end is shattering all the Mike Ditka and Keith Jackson records. He's gone for at least 90 receiving yards in three straight games. With Cole Kmet and Durham Smythe as running mates, Chicago has a stable that can rival that of the Rams. Defensively, the Rams were among the best in the league at defending tight ends this season, both in terms of yards per game and yards per tight end target. And I'll point out, that's while playing in a division that is obsessed with tight ends.
While I've spilled a bunch of digital ink on the quarterbacks and passing game thus far, the game could be decided by which backfield gets the better of this matchup. D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai were the only duo to each rush for 750 yards this year, with the Bears offense finishing third in the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Rams consistently outperformed on the ground, mounting the league's most efficient rushing attack and posting historic success rates. If conditions dictate, LA should have every reason to believe they can run a frozen rock. I'll never forget the Divisional Round win over the Dallas Cowboys at the Coliseum in 2018: 48 handoffs, 273 yards, three rushing touchdowns, and a resounding statement.
It Ain't Over 'Til…
We've learned the hard way that no two-touchdown lead is safe.
If the Rams are fortunate enough to build a two-possession lead at any point on Sunday, we're all aware of what Williams and the Bears are capable of.
That team has SEVEN wins this season after trailing at-or-beyond the two-minute warning. They have eight wins in one-score games. They're 3-3 when down double digits in the last five minutes. The Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter last Saturday. They beat the Packers twice this season without taking a snap with the lead!
Parting Shots
I know I'm way over my limit, so I'll try to wind this down… Hard to believe the Bears had gone nine consecutive games without scoring on an opening drive until settling for a field goal to open their win over the Packers last Saturday … The Bears have to replace injured left tackle Ozzy Trapilo this week along one of the NFL's better offensive lines…. It's notable that guard Jonah Jackson is thriving in Johnson's offense again after a disappointing 2024 in Los Angeles… The importance of getting Kevin Dotson back at that position can't be overstated for the Rams. "He's a beast," said Stafford this week. "When he was playing this year, I thought he was one of the best guards, if not the best guard in the league." And overlooked in trenches, the return of Coleman Shelton after a one-year stint in Chicago has paid off quite well… Penalties. Woof. We were spoiled this season and have been for much of the McVay Era. Suddenly, the Rams are in a bit of a rut. Compare the trips to Carolina: one accepted penalty for five yards in November. Nine for 83 in January, with a good bit of the damage coming pre-snap and after-the-whistle. Those are the ones that must be eliminated… I'd be remiss to not touch on the kicking game. Let's face it. Likely to be where the game is decided. After all, the Rams are heading to Chicago because Packers kicker Brandon McManus missed two field goals and an extra point. Meantime, Cairo Santos (who had a brief cameo with the Rams in 2018) nailed all three of his attempts, including a 51-yarder, longest in Bears postseason history. Tory Taylor was not asked to punt, because the Bears failed on four fourth downs. Devin Duvernay is still a problem, returning punts for 22 and 37 yards last week. Can the Rams string together three final games with excellence in the third phase? If so, they'll be very tough to beat.
