It's an early Clinch-mas Season in Los Angeles this year.
With four games to go, the Rams have a chance to punch their ticket to the postseason Sunday afternoon against the Detroit Lions.
LA has only faltered once since Week 5. The Rams responded in convincing fashion by dismantling Arizona.
The Lions are seeking consecutive wins for the first time since Week 5. Detroit is depleted, desperate, and dangerous.
D'Marco Farr and Maurice Jones Drew broke down the keys to victory on a fresh Between the Horns.
They Meet Again
Hard to believe it's been nearly five full years since The Trade; that Jared Goff has played more games as a Lion than he did as a Ram; that Matthew Stafford finally has a winning record.
They each have 49 victories and a couple division titles since changing cities. Each QB has a play-calling head coach, an arsenal of weapons, and captains a high-octane offense. They're one-two in touchdown passes, in play-action success, and peers in many other categories.
But for all the symmetry, the 2021 World Championship still tips the scales. And the way Stafford and the Rams are currently performing, with the stakes they're currently playing for, a win over the Lions can put any further discussion to rest.
Adams, Like Family
The NFL's leader in receiving touchdowns knows this.
Davante Adams spoke this week about why this game matters to him, what it would mean to help Stafford collect some hardware, and how all that's left for him is to reach (and win) his first Super Bowl.
With 14 scores as a Ram, the one season in which he's produced more touchdowns is 2020 in Green Bay (18), leading the league and facilitating an MVP award for Aaron Rodgers.
If you haven't seen this week's Rams Revealed, you might also enjoy his insights on receivers coach Eric Yarber, a long-time favorite here in LA, and a stalwart of a Sean McVay's offensive coaching staff. He's wanted to coach Adams for a very long time, so it's meaningful to see their paths finally intersect – and with great success.
Duly Noted
Here are a few other tidbits you may want to have in mind as you watch Week 15.
How dynamic is Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs? With 47 scrimmage touchdowns in his career, he lands at LAX tied with Barry Sanders for most by any NFL player in his first three seasons.
It's nice to be able to write about how explosive the Rams' running game has become, as Wyatt Miller did recently, and he's not the only one recognizing the difference!
Even a casual observer has probably noticed that the Lions' gadget plays have been just a tick off this season. In a somewhat related disconnect, they have failed on seven straight fourth down attempts, the longest active streak in the NFL, according to league research.
Stafford needs 118 passing yards to pass Goff (18,171) for solo-fourth in franchise history. Only Jim Everett, Marc Bulger, and Roman Gabriel will be left ahead of him.
Stu Jackson had a nice write-up this week on Colby Parkinson that I'd recommend. The Rams ran 40 plays with three tight ends in formation in their Week 14 win at Arizona, the most in a game by any team since Next Gen Stats began tracking in 2016. Part of that is due to their newfound identity. Part can be attributed to the Cardinals stubbornness, insisting on keeping extra defensive backs on the field to contend with LA's passing attack. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams swing the pendulum this week. The Lions love their linebackers; over their past three games, Detroit has surrendered 1,005 passing yards and eight touchdowns; they've suffered key injuries across their secondary but still play a preponderance of man coverage. I wonder if McVay's plan might look more like it did against the Bucs, and whether there's a role for Tutu Atwell (who scored in the playoffs in Detroit in January 2024) coming off injured reserve.
According to ESPN Analytics, with a win, Detroit's playoff chances improve to 73 percent. However, with a loss, they plummet to 42 percent. As for LA's odds of securing the NFC's top seed? Currently 46 percent, they'd jump to 60 with a win and fall to 27 in defeat.
Watching the West & the Rest
Not that they can afford to look ahead, but the Rams' most important remaining game is Thursday in Seattle. Win that one, spike the odds of winning the West. Falter, and it could get complicated.
The Seahawks' (10-3) only loss since Week 5 is here in LA. In Week 15, they somehow get 44-year-old Phillip Rivers and the Colts?
Then San Francisco (9-4) will travel to Indianapolis next week! This Sunday, and coming off a bye, they'll look to collect a 10th win against the lowly Titans (2-11).
Green Bay (9-3-1) is now the leader of the NFC North, having won four straight and toppling the Bears most recently. The Packers will finish with three of their final four on the road: at Denver, at Chicago, vs. the Ravens, and at Minnesota.
Chicago (9-4) is home to Cleveland before this closing stretch: vs. Packers, at San Francisco, vs. Lions.
