Baker Mayfield will always have a special chapter of Rams lore.
Week 14, 2022.
3-9 and losers of six in a row, the depths of the worst season of the Sean McVay era.
On two nights of sleep, the quarterback who was cast off in Cleveland and Carolina dressed for the Los Angeles Rams. Mayfield replaced John Wolford after one unproductive drive and was thrust into the huddle with a bunch of teammates he'd barely met. Down six with 1:45 left and no timeouts, after punter A.J. Cole had just pinned the Rams at their own two-yard line (and was basking in it), Mayfield did the unthinkable.
Deploying Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek, Malcolm Brown, and ultimately Van Jefferson, the Rams went 98 yards and scored the tying touchdown with 10 seconds left. Matt Gay's extra point won it.
This week, Mayfield's back at SoFi Stadium in prime time. His Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold a narrow lead in the NFC South. And while it will be cool to see him back under the lights, it sure is nice to have the top chef in this game.
Seeds of Change
The Rams have accomplished an unfathomable amount in a decade under McVay.
He's their winningest coach. There have been offensive and defensive player of the year honors. Four division titles, two NFC crowns, and of course the world championship.
Really the one thing the Rams haven't accomplished since he was hired in 2017? Earn the number one seed.
That's what LA is playing for now, at 8-2, tied with Philadelphia for the best record in the NFC.
We discussed the path to the top spot, and what it could mean for their Super Bowl aspirations, on this week's Between the Horns with Camryn Irwin and D'Marco Farr.
Oh Captain, Our Captains
No sooner did they ascend to first place than the Rams are confronted with the injury bug.
Right tackle Rob Havenstein, tight end Tyler Higbee, and do-it-all defensive back Quentin Lake were all placed on injured reserve following the win over Seattle. All are veteran leaders in addition to being starters.
Warren McClendon Jr. replaces Havenstein, and he's graded out well in a three-game stretch already this season.
Higbee's snaps can be spread across Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and rookie Terrance Ferguson.
As for Lake? LA did add Roger McCreary before the deadline in a savvy, low-cost acquisition. He played extensively in the slot with Tennessee.
But last week at least, first dibs went to Josh Wallace, our guest on the latest Rams Revealed.
SNF Notes
Here are a few of my favorite prime time morsels from a week of study.
LA won't get any sympathy on the health front from Tampa Bay. Mayfield has not taken a snap with receivers Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin all on the field together this season, per ESPN.
ESPN Analytics adds that the Rams currently hold a 30 percent chance to earn the top spot in the NFC, trailing the Eagles (47 percent). The Rams odds jump to 38 percent with a win Sunday, but fall to 15 percent with a loss (independent of other results). So yeah, this is a massive one.
The NFL leaders in point differential are the Colts (+115), Seahawks (+101), and Rams (+100). LA has wins over both Indy and Seattle. For reference, Tampa Bay is only plus-two despite being 6-4 on the year.
With a winning career record as a starter for the first time, for his next trick, Stafford can win six straight regular season games in a single season for the first time.
He's thrown 22 red zone touchdowns this year, which seems like a lot. NFL Research says he's the only quarterback with more than 15. Davante Adams and Kyren Williams are feasting on short fields – the only teammate duo with at least nine scrimmage touchdowns apiece. This might be the week to throw it over their heads, however. The Bucs have allowed five offensive touchdowns of 40-plus yards over the last two games – both losses.
As I mentioned in BTH, though, the key for the Rams' offense is early-down efficiency. It's been a hallmark of their 2025 success, and the area in which Seattle was able to derail them. When LA is right, it looks more like this tidbit, from the league: The Rams offense has had an average of 5.8 yards to go on third down, the shortest average distance in the NFL.
The Rams have not collected a sack in their last two wins and only one since the bye. By comparison, the LA defense had 26 sacks from Weeks 1-7, second-most. Personally, I'll take interceptions over sacks any day.
Todd Bowles' group is an attacking bunch. Per NextGen, the Bucs are pressuring opposing
quarterbacks on over 40 percent of drop-backs. That's a top-three rate in the league. Fortunately for the Rams, no signal-caller is solving the puzzle better against the blitz than Stafford.
Scoreboard Watching
Beating San Francisco and Seattle has changed the sightlines for the 2025 Rams. By no means is the division clinched, but as we've detailed, now LA is playing for even bigger regular season prizes.
So, before we get to the NFC West schedule for the week, it's worth highlighting the Eagles (8-2) taking an NFC East trip to Dallas. Do the Cowboys (3-5-1) have what it takes to turn a short week into a rivalry upset? They looked rejuvenated on Monday night.
As for the division, the Cardinals (3-7) are down to their last gasp. With no margin for error, they host a Jaguars team that just unplugged the Chargers.
Seattle (7-3) has a nice bounce-back opportunity in Nashville against the lowly Titans.
And Monday Night Football should be fascinating for a couple reasons. The Carolina Panthers (6-5) are making some playoff noise. A road loss in Santa Clara would further soften the NFC playoff bubble, while a 49ers (7-4) loss is always welcome and could turn the West into a two-horse race. Additionally, we know Charlotte is the next stop on the Rams slate. The Panthers will have a short Thanksgiving week, flying back from the Bay Area on a redeye. Overtime, anyone?
