The plan has always been to win twice at Levi's Stadium this season.
Going into Week 10, the Los Angeles Rams are playing their best football of the season, looking the part of a contender, and they don't have to take their eyes off the prizes to get a bit of payback.
Five weeks have passed since a mistake-riddled home loss to the San Francisco 49ers – the Rams have not been defeated since, outscoring the Ravens, Jaguars, and Saints by 66 points, combined.
However, we know the mountain is about to get steeper as the caliber of competition increases this month. If the Rams are to defend their NFC West title in 2025, and set a direct course for Super Bowl 60 in Santa Clara, they must keep this three-game winning streak alive.
Unfinished Business
Los Angeles has a newfound, more multiple identity on offense. Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams are dialed in. The offensive line is healthy and cohesive. The defense has been suffocating, with red zone stops, takeaways, and plenty of pressure.
That said, who's the best quarterback the Rams have defeated so far?
Why didn't they make a more aggressive move at the trade deadline?
And what happens next in the kicking game?
On this week's Between the Horns, D'Marco Farr and Maurice Jones-Drew weighed in and previewed the rematch in Santa Clara.
Tight End Takeover
You might recall that 49ers tight end George Kittle did not play in the Week 5 meeting at SoFi Stadium. In his stead, Jake Tonges was targeted 11 times for seven catches including a touchdown.
However, for the first time in the McVay-Shanahan series, you could contend that the Rams come into this contest with the opportunity to impact the game more at the tight end position.
One reason is their use of three-tight-end sets lately – specifically using 13-personnel on 35 of 77 snaps against the Saints. Related is the emergence of the top pick in this Rams draft class, Terrance Ferguson.
The 46th overall selection made his first NFL grab against these Niners and has been part of the Rams game plans ever since.
Ferguson was our guest on this week's Rams Revealed and discussed Kittle being the gold standard at his position, how his time on scout team prepared him for this moment, and what it's like aligning with Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson, and Davis Allen.
Stafford Section
QB1 is playing so well that we're creating an entire notes section specifically for his accomplishments this week.
According to the NFL, Stafford is the fourth player (fifth instance) in league history to have 20-plus passing touchdowns and two-or-fewer interceptions in his team's first eight games. The others on that list go by one name: Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady (twice).
I referenced cleaning up that connection with Adams – they'd only completed 47 percent of their targets in their first six games as teammates. Over the last two? 15 targets, 10 receptions, 95 yards, and five touchdowns. One of those wins was with Puka Nacua, the other was without him.
Stafford has already exceeded his touchdown total from 2024 (20), and since Week 4, has a 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With four games of at least three passing touchdowns and no picks, he's tied with Dak Prescott for the most such outings, according to NFL Research. For context, Stafford only had three such games from 2022-24, combined.
With two more touchdown tosses on Sunday, he'll become the ninth in NFL history to reach 400 career.
Other Niner Notes
San Francisco is still in the driver's seat.
If the Rams don't put a dent in them this weekend, the Niners effectively clinch a playoff spot, as far as I'm concerned. The 49ers would be 7-1 against the NFC and 4-0 against the NFC West. With a remaining schedule that includes the Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, Titans, and Bears, San Francisco could sleep-walk to double-digit wins despite being ridiculously depleted, especially on defense.
With Robert Saleh returning as defensive coordinator, the last thing I would've expected is San Francisco posting the worst pressure rate in the NFL (25.5 percent), per NextGen Stats. But that's the salary cap-strapped life without Nick Bosa and now top pick Mykell Williams, among others.
ESPN Analytics gives the Rams a 38 percent chance to win the West (49ers-35 percent, Seahawks-28 percent). LA would move to 54 percent with a victory on Sunday.
Hopefully, the Rams found something in the second half and overtime against Mac Jones and the Niners in Week 5, because this rematch comes down to handling quick game and limiting yards after catch. Jones is averaging 2.7 seconds to throw, and that's the third-quickest mark in the NFL. Whether it's Kendrick Bourne or Christian McCaffrey, who leads the NFL with 229 touches and 1,222 scrimmage yards, the Rams must rally and tackle to earn the right to attack Jones in "and long" known passing situations. Even though they clobbered him on Thursday Night Football in Inglewood, they only came away with one sack.
As for McCaffrey, NFL Research says he's the second player with 150 carries and 60 receptions in his team's first 9 games since at least 1950 – the other back of record is Rams Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk in 2002.
Kyren Williams has 100 scrimmage yards in each of his four career games versus the 49ers and seven total touchdowns. Of course, it should be eight, and we'd be talking about the Rams looking to sweep San Francisco instead of playing for the split. Here's to LA extending its turnover-free streak on offense.
We touched on this back in October, but the Rams had owned fourth quarters against the Niners in winning three straight over their bitter rival. Even in defeat in Week 5, they earned a 9-3 edge on the scoreboard in the fourth. Thus, LA has outscored San Francisco by a margin of 39-6 in the fourth quarter of their last four matchups.
As we know, the 49ers squeaked out an overtime victory on a game-winning field goal in Week 5, continuing a trend of close games between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Including playoffs, that was their eighth game decided by three or fewer points (hat tip to ESPN research) – tied for the third most for any NFL head-coaching matchup in NFL history after Mike Tomlin versus John Harbaugh and Curly Lambeau against George Halas. Will we get another nail-biter on Sunday in Santa Clara?
Watching the West
The NFC West is the only division with three teams having earned six wins. Only two other NFC teams – Philadelphia and Tampa Bay – have six dubs.
This sets up as a relatively uneventful weekend on the NFC bubble, perfect for keeping our focus on defending the West.
However, it's a very straightforward picture in the division this week. As the Rams rematch with the Niners, the Seahawks (6-2) welcome the Cardinals (3-5).
So why don't we cast a slightly wider net and highlight a few other games with playoff implications.
The Lions (5-3) can put the Commanders (3-6) out of their misery this weekend, with Washington having lost quarterback Jayden Daniels to a gruesome injury. As of this writing, Detroit is the seven-seed in the NFC Wild Card framework.
Behind the Lions, the Bears (5-3) have what should be a layup against the Giants. Chicago better bank that win, because the slope is about to get really treacherous for them the rest of the way.
Similarly, the Panthers (5-4) continue to be impressive and are favored against the hapless Saints.
And rounding out the list of four-loss contenders, the Vikings (4-4) look to build behind J.J. McCarthy as they host a hungry and increasingly healthy Ravens roster.
Should the Rams falter, that's the NFC playoff bubble on which they'd be landing. A win sets up the showdown we've been anticipating – Seattle at SoFi for the right to run the West.
