As we continue our recap of the 2025 season, theRams.com will look back on the top five most impactful plays of the Rams' season based on Next Gen Stats' win probability added (WPA) metric, not including special teams.
WPA measures the difference between a team's win probability before a play versus after. It's calculated using a model trained on every historical play in the last 10 seasons, looking at the score differential, down-and-distance, time remaining, timeouts remaining, expected points and team quality.
Here are the Rams' five most impactful plays of the 2025 season, based on WPA.
4) TE Colby Parkinson's 19-yard touchdown to take the lead over Carolina in the final minute of the wild-card round: +21.6%
The Rams trailed 27-31 with 43 seconds remaining in the wild-card round. Their win probability sat at 56.3% with the ball on the Carolina 19 when quarterback Matthew Stafford threw Parkinson open with a perfect ball a few yards ahead of the front pylon, and he tight roped the sideline to stay in bounds and give Los Angeles the lead.
"You couldn't have walked up and put it any better," Parkinson said postgame. After that, the Rams' chances of winning rose to 78%.
4) WR Puka Nacua's fourth-down score late against the Colts in Week 4: +23.6%
The Rams were down 20-13, facing a 4th-and-2 from the Indianapolis nine-yard line. Their win probability was just 22%, and a failed conversion would have given the Colts an opportunity to run out the clock. Instead, Stafford hit Nacua on a quick in-cut and he barreled into the end zone to tie the game. That increased the Rams' win probability to 45.6%.
3) ILB Nate Landman's fourth-quarter punch out versus the Texans in Week 1: +27.2%
The Rams' win probability sat at 68.8% inside two minutes remaining, but the Texans were driving. Just outside the red zone, running back Dare Ogunbowale caught a short pass and then dove forward to get as close as possible to the first-down marker. But as soon as Landman saw the ball unprotected, he punched it out and the Rams recovered. When defensive end Braden Fiske came up with the ball, the Rams' win probability was 95.8%.
2) WR Tutu Atwell's 88-yard touchdown against Indianapolis in Week 4: +29.6%
With only 10 Colts on the field, Atwell made his defender fall on a corner route. Stafford hit him in-stride and Atwell raced into the end zone for the Rams' longest play from scrimmage of the entire season. The Rams took a 27-20 lead with less than two minutes remaining, increasing their win probability from 58.2% to 87.8%. That was the Rams' first offensive play following Nacua's fourth-down score on the previous drive.
1) K Harrison Mevis' game-winning 42-yard field goal against Chicago in the divisional round: +34.6%
When Mevis lined up for the most important kick of his young career, the grass was covered in snow and the wind was swirling. But as an Indiana native, that was just "backyard football" conditions, he said. Mevis drilled the field goal and sent the Rams to the NFC Championship Game.
